Thanks for the report Craig. In 2020-21 there was a lot of discussion of rising cases and seasonality. I am confused why there are rising cases in areas that usually have declining cases this time of year. Has anyone addressed this? Thanks.
My own take is what it's always been in terms of an analogy: seasonality plays a large part in Covid spread that it acts as a sort of soil. The more fertile the soil, the more easily things can grow. But it's never been the only factor, of course. As we move through faster and faster variants, they represent tougher "weeds" that can grow in less fertile soil--but perhaps only up to a certain point.
We're just as far removed from the Omicron wave as Omicron was from the Delta wave right now. But we're not seeing 800K+ cases, ~30% positive, etc. right now. We also haven't seen near the doubling rate as during Omicron (or even Delta). And we're also seeing the largest growth primarily in northern latitude states--the Northeast especially, but lately the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic more and more. So there's *something* there in terms of a regional/seasonal component, but it's hard to put that into some kind of simple explanation.
I don't want to speak for Craig here, but I think that this specific issue is complex. It's something I've tried to analyze closely. What I've seen in Spring 2022 is similar to 2021 and 2020 in that there was a clear inflection point/stimulus in March. What happens from that point may depend more on other factors, such as immunity. It could be a longer, slower ramp-up this time because it's running into more dead ends and takes longer to peak. We've seen the Summer wave of 2021 (Delta, most pronounced in the SE US) not peak until mid-August, whereas in 2020 the peak came in mid-July. I think the 'peak' timings are less set than the wave 'start' timings, which seem to be very closely tied to the solstices and equinoxes... i.e. cases may still be rising, but the outbreak has lost steam already. The most infectious potential is always on the front end of outbreaks, which is why superspread events rarely ever occur on the back end of these waves. I plan to write more about this soon. Curious to hear what Craig thinks!
Thanks for the report Craig. In 2020-21 there was a lot of discussion of rising cases and seasonality. I am confused why there are rising cases in areas that usually have declining cases this time of year. Has anyone addressed this? Thanks.
My own take is what it's always been in terms of an analogy: seasonality plays a large part in Covid spread that it acts as a sort of soil. The more fertile the soil, the more easily things can grow. But it's never been the only factor, of course. As we move through faster and faster variants, they represent tougher "weeds" that can grow in less fertile soil--but perhaps only up to a certain point.
We're just as far removed from the Omicron wave as Omicron was from the Delta wave right now. But we're not seeing 800K+ cases, ~30% positive, etc. right now. We also haven't seen near the doubling rate as during Omicron (or even Delta). And we're also seeing the largest growth primarily in northern latitude states--the Northeast especially, but lately the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic more and more. So there's *something* there in terms of a regional/seasonal component, but it's hard to put that into some kind of simple explanation.
I don't want to speak for Craig here, but I think that this specific issue is complex. It's something I've tried to analyze closely. What I've seen in Spring 2022 is similar to 2021 and 2020 in that there was a clear inflection point/stimulus in March. What happens from that point may depend more on other factors, such as immunity. It could be a longer, slower ramp-up this time because it's running into more dead ends and takes longer to peak. We've seen the Summer wave of 2021 (Delta, most pronounced in the SE US) not peak until mid-August, whereas in 2020 the peak came in mid-July. I think the 'peak' timings are less set than the wave 'start' timings, which seem to be very closely tied to the solstices and equinoxes... i.e. cases may still be rising, but the outbreak has lost steam already. The most infectious potential is always on the front end of outbreaks, which is why superspread events rarely ever occur on the back end of these waves. I plan to write more about this soon. Curious to hear what Craig thinks!