Episode 2: Faulty Covid Logic + Weekly Data Update

In this episode, in addition to summarizing the Covid data and trends, I use a recent study out of Iceland on children and Covid transmission in school to discuss an oft-used logical fallacy in the Covid discourse. Here is the link to the referenced study. I’ve included the data below.

US Covid-19 Data

Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 106,021 (7/7/2022)

• Last Week: 112,331 (-5.6%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Testing is much lower, so we’re seeing very low ascertainment of infections (see infections and positive testing percentage below)

  • Up 343.3% from Omicron low point (24,804) on 3/29/2022

  • Up 731.7% from the same day last year

Infections (Biobot Wastewater Data)

• Current: 837 copies/mL (7/6/2022)

• Last Week: 769 copies/mL (+8.8%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Infections this wave are higher at a more sustained level than all previous non-Omicron waves

  • Up 682.2% from Omicron low point (107 copies/mL) on 3/9/2022

  • Up 762.9% from the same day last year

Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 17.58% (7/5/2022)

• Last Week: 15.36% (+14.5%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Continued rise since mid-March

  • Up 733.2% from Omicron low point (2.11%) on 3/17/2022

  • Up 502.1% from the same day last year

Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 38,268 (7/8/2022)

• Last Week: 34,093 (+12.2%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 76.4% from Omicron wave peak, up 167.2% from Omicron low

  • Up 94.7% from the same day last year

ICU Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 3,883 (7/8/2022)

• Last Week: 3,391 (+14.5%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 85.3% from Omicron wave peak, up 171.2% from Omicron low

  • Down 9.8% from the same day last year

Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 278 (7/7/2022)

• Last Week: 341 (-18.7%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 89.8% from the Omicron wave peak

  • Up 27.1% from the same day last year

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