Episode 1: Covid Update for the Week Ending June 10, 2022

My Covid update this week is also Episode 1 of The Issue Podcast. In the episode, I discuss the topics below.

Topics

(1) Current US Covid data (0:00—7:45)

• In addition to the metrics (which are also included below), I discuss whether the US is post-peak, how the trends vary by region, and what this summer might look like.

(2) Omicron subvariant mix (7:45—10:10)

• We have moved through several Omicron subvariants in the past 6 months. What does our current variant mix look like? And what’s moving in?

(3) South Africa (10:10—12:05)

• South Africa is now on the backside of its 5th wave. What did it look like, and what can we learn from it?

(4) Case ascertainment: lowest of the pandemic? (12:05—13:40)

• What is case ascertainment? Is it at its lowest point of the pandemic (and should you care)?

(5) Decoupling severity from infections (13:40—17:30)

• I’ll wrap up by discussing something about which I (and others) have been banging the drum for months now: Covid’s decreasing severity—both based on immunity and intrinsically with Omicron—is excellent news.

US Covid-19 Data

Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 108,548 (as of 6/10/2022)

• Last Week: 98,040 (+10.7%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 87.9% from winter wave peak, up 337.6% from March ‘22 trough

  • Up 629.1% from the same day last year

  • *Cases last week may have been deflated some due to the Memorial Day holiday. The 7DA was down slightly from two-weeks prior (109,861)

Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 13.35% (as of 6/8/2022)

• Last Week: 13.96% (-4.4%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 54.3% from winter wave peak, up 532.7% from March ‘22 trough

  • Up 629.5% from the same day last year

Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 29,788 (as of 6/10/2022)

• Last Week: 29,332 (+1.6%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 81.6% from winter wave peak, up 108.0% from April ‘22 trough

  • Up 55.7% from the same day last year

ICU Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 2,792 (as of 6/10/2022)

• Last Week: 2,706 (+3.2%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 89.4% from winter wave peak, up 84.8% from April ‘22 trough

  • Down 34.9% from the same day last year

Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 285 (as of 6/10/2022)

• Last Week: 260 (+9.7%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 89.5% from the winter wave peak

  • Down 29.2% from the same day last year

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