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"I’m interested to see what the South looks like in the coming couple months."

That makes two of us.

I am thinking what you're thinking -- that the peak and resulting drop in the South will be short-lived and begin ticking back up almost immediately after it starts to fall. In some ways, this would be similar to 2020. Though I am curious to see if we get a 2021-like pattern where it abates fully, and is followed up by an even-more-delayed summer wave (might not get going until August if this is the case).

Each wave I'm convinced we'll learn more and more about the underlying forces driving these epi-curves. And yet, each time, we seem to be only left with more questions!

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Exactly. I feel like by Labor Day we should see whether the waves continue to wane in amplitude where it matters (severity). I'm hoping that this summer is a far cry from last summer and the disconnect continues to grow such that a "case" becomes so much less meaningful. I'm happy to update my priors if the "I Am Legend" variant surfaces.

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