A few confounding factors for the UK: firstly, the rise coincided with the European soccer championship, held largely in England, and with England getting to the final. The biggest growth in cases was in men aged 18 to 44, which I think is non coincidental. Now that's over, cases have come down. Secondly, we have just opened up nightclubs and removed limits to indoor gatherings. The impacts of that will start to be felt this week. Finally, schools have finished for the summer. That takes away both a whole lot of mixing, and a whole lot of testing. So this week might be different, and a lot of the experts are a bit confused (but grateful). Let's hope the steep downwards trend continues. That 100k a day figure comes from Boris Johnson by the way, and he is not known for his pessimism.
But it also makes it harder to apply what happens in the UK directly to the US.
Two things I would note:
One is that delta mainly impacts the unvaccinated here, and whilst we are only circa 9% more vaccinated than the us as a whole, our strict vaccination by age regime means that significantly more older (and therefore more vulnerable) people are vaccinated in the UK. 93.9% of over 50s in England have had both doses, for example. That's really helped keep death rates low here, but I fear it won't apply in the US, at least in the less vaccinated states.
The second is that the UK's map of active cases started a bit like the US's, with distinct hotspots (Blackburn and Glasgow) which then spread to the north west and most of Scotland. As these subsided, the whole of the rest of the country took off. If you are following our pattern, then I think cases have a long way to go. I don't know about 250k, but I'd take the over on 150k.
A few confounding factors for the UK: firstly, the rise coincided with the European soccer championship, held largely in England, and with England getting to the final. The biggest growth in cases was in men aged 18 to 44, which I think is non coincidental. Now that's over, cases have come down. Secondly, we have just opened up nightclubs and removed limits to indoor gatherings. The impacts of that will start to be felt this week. Finally, schools have finished for the summer. That takes away both a whole lot of mixing, and a whole lot of testing. So this week might be different, and a lot of the experts are a bit confused (but grateful). Let's hope the steep downwards trend continues. That 100k a day figure comes from Boris Johnson by the way, and he is not known for his pessimism.
But it also makes it harder to apply what happens in the UK directly to the US.
Two things I would note:
One is that delta mainly impacts the unvaccinated here, and whilst we are only circa 9% more vaccinated than the us as a whole, our strict vaccination by age regime means that significantly more older (and therefore more vulnerable) people are vaccinated in the UK. 93.9% of over 50s in England have had both doses, for example. That's really helped keep death rates low here, but I fear it won't apply in the US, at least in the less vaccinated states.
The second is that the UK's map of active cases started a bit like the US's, with distinct hotspots (Blackburn and Glasgow) which then spread to the north west and most of Scotland. As these subsided, the whole of the rest of the country took off. If you are following our pattern, then I think cases have a long way to go. I don't know about 250k, but I'd take the over on 150k.
the virus' political task remains...... likely the panic ball will be in the air until nov 2022