Covid-19 Weekly Update

The latest data as of July 22, 2022

Overall Trends

I’m short on time this week (traveling), so just a brief update. It seems like we’re finding our BA.5 national infection peak. Whether you use cases, positive testing percentage, or wastewater data, the metrics in most regions are pointing to a peak—either already or soon to come. Here’s the national wastewater data over the last 6 months:

Of course, one week of a wastewater dip does not guarantee continued decline. But we’re essentially saturated with BA.5 at this point, so new growth is no longer a product of BA.5’s initial takeover. The Walgreens sub-variant tracking data shows us at almost 90% BA.4/5 as of the 3-day period from July 17-19:

Regardless of our precise infection peak, as you’ll see in the metrics below, we continue to see limited movement in severe outcomes. Not too long ago, the concept of incidental “Covid hospitalizations” was heresy. Now, it’s common knowledge. Depending on the hospital system and underlying infection rate, incidentals in the 50-60% range seem to be common. Of course, the recent video and statement out of LAC+USC Medical Center had their incidental number as high as 90%:

LAC+USC Medical Center @LACUSCMedCenter

Statement on behalf of LA County’s USC Medical Center on state of current COVID-19 Hospitalizations.

The metrics as of this past Friday, July 22, are below.

US Covid-19 Data

Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 126,129 (7/21/2022)

• Last Week: 128,126 (-1.6%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Up 408.1% from Omicron low point (24,804) on 3/29/2022

  • Up 192.7% from the same day last year

Infections (Biobot Wastewater Data)

• Current: 1042 copies/mL (7/20/2022)

• Last Week: 1063 copies/mL (-2.0%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Infections this wave are higher than at any time during Covid except the first Omicron wave

  • Up 873.8% from Omicron low point (107 copies/mL) on 3/9/2022

  • Up 639.0% from the same day last year (141 copies/mL)

Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 17.44% (7/19/2022)

• Last Week: 17.52% (-0.5%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Up 726.5% from Omicron low point (2.11%) on 3/17/2022

  • Up 186.8% from the same day last year

Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 43.294 (7/22/2022)

• Last Week: 41,546 (+4.2%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 73.3% from Omicron wave peak, up 202.3% from Omicron low

  • Up 23.5% from the same day last year

ICU Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 4,422 (7/22/2022)

• Last Week: 4,133 (+7.0%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 83.3% from Omicron wave peak, up 202.3% from Omicron low

  • Down 45.5% from the same day last year

Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 355* (7/21/2022)

• Last Week: 378 (-6.0%)

• Notes and Trends

  • *CDC deaths lately have tended to settle out ~10% higher than the number initially reported.

  • Down 86.9% from the Omicron wave peak

  • Up 22.9% from the same day last year

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