Covid-19 Weekly Update
The US Numbers as of May 23, 2022
No video discussion today. I will upload a short reel on my Instagram, however, that briefly summarizes the information below. I’m @TheLawyerCraig across all social platforms.
Below, I’ve included the latest data (cases, % positive, hospitalizations, ICUs, deaths), as well as (1) a brief discussion of “Covid decoupling” and (2) the start of a Northeast peak(?).
Overall Trends
The US is still in the midst of a spring rise nationally, but—if you squint—it looks like it may be starting to slow. We’ve now had three days in a row with a sub-20% week-over-week increase in cases for the first time since April 8-10.
Hospitalization and ICU census have risen more slowly than have cases. And though it’ll take a bit longer to know for sure, it looks like the rate of growth in hospitalizations has begun to slow. Hospitalizations are up only 5.5% over last week (full data below), which is the smallest week-over-week growth in approximately 5 weeks.
Severe outcomes also remain relatively low. ICU census has dropped the last couple days in a row. While it’s normal to see depressed counts over the weekend, the US saw a daily rise throughout the weekend last week. I do not think we’ve peaked yet. At this point, however, I would be surprised if ICU census challenged our pre-Omicron pandemic low of ~3.5k in the summer of 2021. Additionally, 7-day-averaged daily deaths have remained below 300 for ten days in a row now.
Putting Numbers to “Covid Decoupling”
“Decoupling” in the Covid context is somewhat of a misnomer, as it does not literally mean that metrics are entirely dissociated from one another. As it is used in Covid, it generally means an increased separation in the percentage of Covid infections that lead to severe outcomes. There is no question that we have seen such a separation in the metrics post-Omicron.
Let’s look at last year’s “equivalent cases” for our current ICU census. Remember, we never saw a census this low (currently 2,207), or even close, at any point during 2021. But let’s look at our lowest 2021 period: the brief pre-Delta honeymoon of June/July 2021. Our average daily case counts ranged from 11-15k and positive testing percentages fell generally in the 1.5-3% range for weeks. These numbers yielded an ICU census in the 3.5-5k range (low was 3,534 on June 27, per HHS). Our 7DA deaths generally were consistently in the 200s for weeks.
In other words, the severe outcomes we see right now would be equivalent to anywhere from ~7-20k cases in 2021 (at an exceedingly low positive testing rate). As many have noted, the current state of play—vastly increased at-home testing—means that our undercounting of cases may also currently be the highest of the pandemic. If that is the case (and it may well be), then the continuing decoupling between infections and severe outcomes is even more pronounced. This is absolutely good news.
Post-Peak Northeast?
After moving through two new variants in the last 2-3 months, we might finally be looking at a chunk of post-peak states in the Northeast. The Northeast was the first to rise and has been the first cycling through the new variants, so it makes sense that it should be the first to see the peak (excepting, of course, some areas that haven’t really risen with any regularity during spring).
If you look at the New York Times Covid data (I use CDC normally, but NYT’s graphics make it easier to get a visual snapshot), you can see flattening, and even some decreases, in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes. If we look at Boston’s wastewater data, we also see a dip that started late last week:
Of course, one need only look back a month on the graphs above to see that Boston gave us a little pump-fake before. We should have more of a clear look at the regional and national Covid trends with next week’s update.
US Covid-19 Data
Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 105,714 (5/20/2022)
Last Week: 90,577 (+16.7%)
Notes and Trends
Down 86.9% from winter wave peak, up 326.2% from recent trough
Up 289.1% from the same day last year
Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 11.37% (5/19/2022)
Last Week: 9.34% (+21.7%)
Notes and Trends
Down 61.0% from winter wave peak, up 438.9% from recent trough
Up 289.4% from the same day last year
*Test reporting takes a while to update on the CDC website. Because of that, the positive testing percentage generally drops some over time during periods of rise. For example, my weekly update last week had it at 10.31% on 5/12, which has since been revised down to 9.34%.
Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)
Current: 24,486 (5/23/2022)
Last Week: 23,199 (+5.5%)
Notes and Trends
Down 84.9% from winter wave peak, up 71.0% from recent trough
Down 9.9% from the same day last year
ICU Census (HHS Data)
Current: 2,207 (5/23/2022)
Last Week: 1,936 (+14.0%)
Notes and Trends
Down 91.7% from winter wave peak, up 54.1% from recent trough
Down 65.4% from the same day last year
Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 284 (5/20/2022)
Last Week: 276 (+3.0%)
Notes and Trends
Down 89.5% from the winter wave peak
Down 46.0% from the same day last year
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