Covid-19 Weekly Update

The latest data as of August 5, 2022

I have been slammed with work, which I why I didn’t get an update out last week. It’s also why the commentary will be short this week. One thing that is now certain is that any claim or study or preprint purporting to show a material benefit of masking—no matter the methodology—will be shared on Twitter lightning fast, without even a cursory glance at the substance. Dr. Alasdair Munro (who you should be following on Twitter if you don’t already), addressed the recent preprint du jour:

Alasdair Munro @apsmunro

I am absolutely howling that anyone could share this pre-print on mask wearing I pray they simply didn't bother reading it before promoting it, as that is genuinely the least worrying explanation A new low for covid twitter 1/

doi.orgThe Efficacy of Facemasks in the Prevention of COVID-19: A Systematic ReviewFacemasks have become a symbol of disease prevention in the context of COVID-19; yet, there still exists a paucity of collected scientific evidence surrounding their epidemiological efficacy in the prevention of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. This systematic review sought to analyze the efficacy of facema…

Folks will keep flooding the zone with nonsense like this as long as there’s a market for it—and the market’s not going anywhere.

Good news on the data front as well: hospitalization and ICU census nationally both saw week-over-week drops for the first time this summer. Thankfully, we appear have peaked in most regions and nationally, regardless of whether you look at cases, percent positive, wastewater, or (now) inpatients with Covid. As I posted last Wednesday, I’m glad it looks like it’s going to be a bit earlier this year:

Craig @TheLawyerCraig

I'm happy BA.5 arrived when it did. Many children are subject to whim- or vibe-based decisions (rather than data-based) on how normal their school experience should be, so shifting this "wave" even a couple weeks later would've likely caught more schools in the safetyism net.

In fact, Los Angeles County reversed course on its impending mask mandate after seeing the writing on the wall. No doubt there are plenty of politicos and technocrats itching to reinstate (or maintain) whatever ineffective mandates they can.

The metrics as of this past Friday, August 5, are below.

US Covid-19 Data

Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 114,831 (8/4/2022)

• Last Week: 125,797 (-8.7%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Up 362.3% from Omicron low point (24,839) on 3/29/2022

  • Up 16.7% from the same day last year

Infections (Biobot Wastewater Data)

• Current: 971 copies/mL (8/3/2022)

• Last Week: 989 copies/mL (-1.8%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Up 807.5% from Omicron low point (107 copies/mL) on 3/9/2022

  • Down 79.8% from overall Omicron peak (4,807 copies/mL) on 12/29/2021

  • Down 9.7% from recent Omicron peak (1,075 copies/mL) on 7/20/2022

  • Up 128.5% from the same day last year (426 copies/mL)

Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 17.73% (8/2/2022)

• Last Week: 18.39% (-3.6%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Up 740.3% from Omicron low point (2.11%) on 3/17/2022

  • Up 75.4% from the same day last year

Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 43,478 (8/5/2022)

• Last Week: 44,033 (-1.3%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 73.1% from Omicron wave peak, up 203.6% from Omicron low

  • Down 35.6% from the same day last year

ICU Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 4,646 (8/5/2022)

• Last Week: 4,672 (-0.6%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 82.4% from Omicron wave peak, up 224.4% from Omicron low

  • Down 70.5% from the same day last year

Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 424* (8/4/2022)

• Last Week: 421* (+0.7%)

• Notes and Trends

  • *Based on recent trends and how deaths have backfilled, I’ve added an additional 8% to the current total and 4% to last week’s number. The current numbers from the CDC are 393 (current) and 405 (last week).

  • Down 84.4% from the Omicron wave peak

  • Down 24.0% from the same day last year

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