Covid-19 Weekly Update

The US Numbers as of July 1, 2022

Overall Trends

BA.4 & 5 are likely now dominant in every region of the United States. Cases continue to maintain a plateau in the low 100k range. According to Biobot Analytics data, the national Covid infection numbers have been above 700 copies/mL for the last six weeks straight. This is a higher sustained number of infections than any pre-Omicron wave:

Despite the sustained high infections, severe outcomes are a fraction of what they were during other periods. ICU census has risen since mid-April, yet it’s still below all 2020 and 2021 lows. If you overlay ICU census (faded orange) onto Biobot infection data, you can see just how much Omicron changed the game regarding severity—it has dropped dramatically:

Compare any of the prior non-Omicron infection waves to the current one. Then look at the matched ICU census. Night and day. This is good news, and I haven’t seen anything in the BA.4/5 data from other countries that leads me to believe that the faded orange line is going to approach what we’ve seen before (though I suspect we will finally climb above our pre-Omicron low sometime this week).

The metrics as of this past Friday, July 1, are below.

US Covid-19 Data

Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 109,010 (6/30/2022)

• Last Week: 99,245 (+10.8%) (*some holiday effect last week)

• Notes and Trends

  • Generally sitting on a 6-week-long plateau between 100-110k

  • Up 343.3% from Omicron low point (24,804) on 3/29/2022

  • Up 731.7% from the same day last year

Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 15.3% (6/28/2022)

• Last Week: 14.03% (+9.1%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Continued rise for the past 3+ months

  • Up 625.1% from Omicron low point (2.11%) on 3/17/2022

  • Up 618.3% from the same day last year

Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 33,585 (7/1/2022)

• Last Week: 31,839 (+5.5%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 79.0% from Omicron wave peak, up 137.6% from Omicron low

  • Up 96.3% from the same day last year

ICU Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 3,386 (7/1/2022)

• Last Week: 3,098 (+9.3%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 87.2% from Omicron wave peak, up 137.2% from Omicron low

  • Down 10.3% from the same day last year

Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 316 (6/30/2022)

• Last Week: 319 (-0.9%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 88.4% from the Omicron wave peak

  • Up 20.3% from the same day last year

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