Covid-19 Weekly Update

The US Numbers as of June 17, 2022: Regional Shift Underway

Just a brief Covid-19 update this week. In addition to the latest metrics, I discuss the overall trends and BA.4/5’s increasing percentage in our numbers.

Overall Trends

It looks like the spring wave case peak (per CDC) will remain May 26. This was a more extended and broad-based spring wave than last year, where we saw a mid-April peak. Of course, last year was Alpha and a few other also-ran variants that didn’t have a lot of bite outside of Michigan. We’ve been encountering speedier variants since then, and the spring wave coincided with the transition through BA.2 and BA.2.12.1.

Two weeks ago, I said this in my weekly Covid update:

But even if this is the spring peak, will it last? Or will we simply edge downward for a few weeks before moving back up, this time led by the southern states?

I think our recent (and very gradual) decline in cases won’t last too much longer. We’re now moving through the BA.2 subvariants to BA.4/5 (see below). Cases are already climbing in much of the South and West, just offset thus far by declines in other regions. But even if cases begin to rise again nationally, I also said this two weeks ago:

The bigger question perhaps is: Does any of this matter? Case metrics have become widely disconnected to severity as of late, and the disconnect only seems to grow with each new “wave.”

Cases have more than quadrupled during the spring rise, and positive testing percentage went up 5-6x. But ICU census has roughly doubled and to numbers still below those at any time prior to Omicron. Deaths have remained mostly flat, bouncing around from the mid-200s to low-300s. Covid in 2022 is simply different than in 2021 or 2020.

BA.4 + BA.5 Likely Dominant Soon

BA.4 and BA.5 have been climbing as a share of Covid cases for weeks and should take over from the BA.2 subvariants soon—looking like around the end of June. Fortunately, the data out of South Africa shows a similar disconnect between cases and severe outcomes in BA.4/5 as was this case with the prior Omicron subvariants:

That last hump on the right is the ICU census for South Africa’s BA.4/5 wave, which pales in comparison to the previous Omicron wave, which itself pales in comparison to the Delta, Beta, and wild-type waves that preceded it.

South Africa is not the United States, of course, and variants haven’t necessarily behaved the same from one country to the next—or even one state to the next. But the variance is usually one of transmission, not of severity. And because BA.4/5 have already been an increasing percentage of our Covid total lately without any noticeable shift in the case-to-severity pipeline, smart money says that our 2022 summer looks nothing at all like 2021 in terms of severity.

US Covid-19 Data*

*The CDC did not update this weekend, so there is no Friday data. The next update will be Tuesday.

Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 100,734 (6/16/2022)

• Last Week: 109,098 (-7.7%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 8.9% from spring wave peak, up 306.1% from recent trough

  • Up 722.9% from the same day last year

Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 13.64% (6/14/2022)

• Last Week: 13.50% (+1.0%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 2.4% from spring wave peak, up 546.4% from recent trough

  • Up 683.9% from the same day last year

Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 30,396 (6/17/2022)

• Last Week: 29,788 (+2.0%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 81.2% from winter wave peak, up 108.6% from recent trough

  • Up 76.5% from the same day last year

ICU Census (HHS Data)

• Current: 2,984 (6/17/2022)

• Last Week: 2,792 (+6.9%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 88.9% from winter wave peak, up 105.9% from recent trough

  • Down 19.4% from the same day last year

Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)

• Current: 266 (6/16/2022)

• Last Week: 310 (-14.1%)

• Notes and Trends

  • Down 90.2% from the winter wave peak

  • Down 7.0% from the same day last year

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