I thought I’d try something different this time. Instead of a longer newsletter post, I’m making this my first video post (but including the underlying data below). Watch it if you have some time. I recorded this video the morning of Monday, March 28, so the data is a day behind. Here is the referenced data :
Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 27,594 (3/25/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 806,345 (1/15/2022)
Pandemic Peak: same as recent wave (prior peak was 219,133 on 12/17/2020)
Pandemic Low: 11,595 (6/18/2021)
Notes and Trends
Down 96.6% from the recent wave peak (also our pandemic peak).
Up slightly from our recent low of 26,945 (on 3/19/2022)
About twice as low as our mini-trough last spring
Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 2.33% (3/23/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 29.48% (1/7/2022)
Pandemic Peak: same as recent wave
Prior peak was 21.11% on 4/6/2020 (but test-restricted)
Prior “testing widely available” peak was 15.02% on 1/3/2021
Pandemic Low: 1.74% (from 6/14/2021-6/18/2021)
Notes and Trends
Down 92.1% from the recent wave peak (also our pandemic peak).
Up slightly from our recent low of 2.12% (on 3/17/2022)
Could increased at-home testing provide a higher floor?
Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)
Current: 16,832 (3/28/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 161,787 (1/19/2022)
Pandemic Peak: same as recent wave (prior peak was 139,339 on 1/6/2021)
Pandemic Low: 16,350 (6/27/2021)
Notes and Trends
Down 89.6% from the recent wave peak (also our pandemic peak).
Only 2.9% above our pandemic low.
During the recent decline, we saw 41 days in a row at 20% or greater week-over-week decline. No prior wave had ever hit 20% once.
More susceptible to “with/from” issues than ICU census, especially during Omicron.
ICU Census (HHS Data)
Current: 2,192 (3/28/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 26,445 (1/19/2022)
Pandemic Peak: 28,821 (1/12/2021)
Pandemic Low: same as current (prior low was 3,519 on 6/27/2021)
Notes and Trends
ICU census is at pandemic lows, 37.7% below our previous pandemic low.
Down 91.7% from the recent wave peak and down 92.4% from the pandemic peak.
Currently on a streak of 46 days straight with 20% or greater week-over-week decline.
Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 705* (3/25/2022) (*See Notes)
Recent Wave Peak: 2,669 (2/2/2022)
Pandemic Peak: 3,420 (1/13/2021)
Pandemic Low: 214 (7/11/2021)
Notes and Trends
*CDC data continues to backfill certain states over time, and this number is likely ~5-15% below the eventual “settled” number.
Down 73.6% from the recent wave peak and down 79.4% from the pandemic peak.
In Spring 2021, the US plateaued in the high 600s/low 700s for ~3 weeks in April before beginning to decline again to pandemic lows in the summer before the rise of Delta.
OTHER TOPICS
“With/From” during Omicron
Europe’s skewed death reporting
Omicron BA.2 is already here
If you liked this post, feel free to share it.
And if you don’t yet subscribe to The Issue, please click on the button below. It’s free.
Covid-19 Spring Data Update