I thought I’d try something different this time. Instead of a longer newsletter post, I’m making this my first video post (but including the underlying data below). Watch it if you have some time. I recorded this video the morning of Monday, March 28, so the data is a day behind. Here is the referenced data :
Cases (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 27,594 (3/25/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 806,345 (1/15/2022)
Pandemic Peak: same as recent wave (prior peak was 219,133 on 12/17/2020)
Pandemic Low: 11,595 (6/18/2021)
Notes and Trends
Down 96.6% from the recent wave peak (also our pandemic peak).
Up slightly from our recent low of 26,945 (on 3/19/2022)
About twice as low as our mini-trough last spring
Positive Testing Percentage (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 2.33% (3/23/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 29.48% (1/7/2022)
Pandemic Peak: same as recent wave
Prior peak was 21.11% on 4/6/2020 (but test-restricted)
Prior “testing widely available” peak was 15.02% on 1/3/2021
Pandemic Low: 1.74% (from 6/14/2021-6/18/2021)
Notes and Trends
Down 92.1% from the recent wave peak (also our pandemic peak).
Up slightly from our recent low of 2.12% (on 3/17/2022)
Could increased at-home testing provide a higher floor?
Hospitalization Census (HHS Data)
Current: 16,832 (3/28/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 161,787 (1/19/2022)
Pandemic Peak: same as recent wave (prior peak was 139,339 on 1/6/2021)
Pandemic Low: 16,350 (6/27/2021)
Notes and Trends
Down 89.6% from the recent wave peak (also our pandemic peak).
Only 2.9% above our pandemic low.
During the recent decline, we saw 41 days in a row at 20% or greater week-over-week decline. No prior wave had ever hit 20% once.
More susceptible to “with/from” issues than ICU census, especially during Omicron.
ICU Census (HHS Data)
Current: 2,192 (3/28/2022)
Recent Wave Peak: 26,445 (1/19/2022)
Pandemic Peak: 28,821 (1/12/2021)
Pandemic Low: same as current (prior low was 3,519 on 6/27/2021)
Notes and Trends
ICU census is at pandemic lows, 37.7% below our previous pandemic low.
Down 91.7% from the recent wave peak and down 92.4% from the pandemic peak.
Currently on a streak of 46 days straight with 20% or greater week-over-week decline.
Deaths (7-day Average, CDC Data)
Current: 705* (3/25/2022) (*See Notes)
Recent Wave Peak: 2,669 (2/2/2022)
Pandemic Peak: 3,420 (1/13/2021)
Pandemic Low: 214 (7/11/2021)
Notes and Trends
*CDC data continues to backfill certain states over time, and this number is likely ~5-15% below the eventual “settled” number.
Down 73.6% from the recent wave peak and down 79.4% from the pandemic peak.
In Spring 2021, the US plateaued in the high 600s/low 700s for ~3 weeks in April before beginning to decline again to pandemic lows in the summer before the rise of Delta.
OTHER TOPICS
“With/From” during Omicron
Europe’s skewed death reporting
Omicron BA.2 is already here
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